Imports of pork increase prices continue to fall Experts: meat prices will rebound

China Broadcasting Network, Beijing, November 2 According to China Voices, “News Evening Peak” report, the data released by the Ministry of Commerce show that in the first 9 months of this year (2011), China imported 870,000 tons of pork and its by-products, which was a year-on-year increase. Into the above, which imported 142,000 tons in September, hit a new high in a single month. According to the latest statistics from Shanghai Customs, Shanghai’s cumulative import of pork surged 1.8 times in the first three months of this year compared to the same period last year.

Imported pork accounts for a small proportion of the total consumption, so there is a large influx of “pork pork”, which has little impact on the domestic market. Is the Chinese pork market highly dependent on imported pork? 9 months, 870 tons of imported pork, what is the concept? Li Guoxiang, a research fellow at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that this is not as significant as China’s total output of 50 million tons.

Li Guoxiang: The import volume of pork is 870,000 tons, which is indeed very small in China. The total pork production in our country is about 50 million tons every year, so 870,000 tons is only equivalent to one fraction.

Many countries compete for the Chinese pork market For the huge pork consumption market in China, many foreign companies have shown great interest. A delegation of agricultural and pastoral products led by the Deputy Minister of Agriculture of Mexico is visiting China. The Finnish Minister of Agriculture and Forestry came to China at the end of October to sign a cooperation agreement. Researcher Li Guoxiang believes that the price of pork in China is now significantly higher than the price in the international market. Naturally, it is a business opportunity for countries with relatively surplus pork production.

Li Guoxiang: According to the data imported by the United States, each pound of pork that we import is only worth less than RMB 10, which is a little more than a dollar. Compared to our current market price, there are more than 20 yuan when it is high and 15 yuan when it is low.

According to the monitoring data of the price of edible agricultural products announced by the Ministry of Commerce, the price of pork dropped for 6 weeks in a row, with a cumulative decrease of 5%. Li Guoxiang believes that the recent drop in pork prices is inseparable from the government’s increase in pork imports.

Li Guoxiang: On the one hand, we have increased support for pig production, and the supply of pork is growing. On the other hand, we have increased imports. In the first three quarters of this year, we have reached 900,000 tons, which has reached the level of last year. The fourth quarter will have to be further increased. The supply of pork will increase, and prices will definitely fall.

The price of pork dropped for 6 weeks in a row. People worry about it. Two years ago, the price of meat dipped. The same phenomenon of meat and vegetables occurred again. How about the future price of pork?

Vendor: Now the price of pork is generally about 15 bucks around the elbow.

Reporter: Before?

Vendors: Before and after the elbow at around 17, pork in about 16 5, now fell about 2 or so.

Reporter: How do you see this price?

Consumer: Okay, it's all right now.

Reporter: What about the future?

Consumers: I hope to be cheaper. It's better to drop a little bit.

Vendor: Our elbow price is 15.6 yuan/500 g before and after this year, and Wuhua is 14.6 yuan/500 g. In the near future our prices have been stable and there hasn't been much change.

Experts: The amount of pork on hand determines that prices will remain high Regarding the future trend of pork prices. Everyone has different opinions. Chen Dongqi, deputy dean of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, believes that after a short-term adjustment of meat prices, it will rebound.

Chen Dongqi: How can we analyze meat? I think there are several indicators to look at. The first one is on hand, the second is meat, the third is the situation of sows and piglets, and the fourth is the opinion and behavior of people who raise pigs. Recently, more pigs have been slaughtered. Therefore, in terms of pigs, the amount of meat listed is increasing, but there is a small amount on the market. Therefore, from this perspective, the price of meat may still be high after a short-term adjustment. Because this deposit is very important, the deposit is decided a few weeks later, a few months later, it is not enough to look at the amount of stored meat.

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